Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Physical Education Department, NT,C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran,Iran
2
Department of Physical Education, NT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3
3Deprtemant of Sport Management, Shahid Rajaee teacher training University, Tehran
4
Department of Entrepreneurship Management CT.C., Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
10.22089/rws.2026.19013.1107
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to forecast the future position of women in sports organizations in Iran. The research adopted an inductive approach, a fundamental orientation, a mixed-method design, and an applied futures studies strategy, grounded in the complexity theory paradigm. The participants consisted of experts in women’s sports, including managers, officials, and specialists, selected through purposive and snowball sampling based on expertise criteria, resulting in 14 participants. Data were collected using interviews and questionnaires. Interview questions were designed according to the research objectives, and the questionnaire items were developed based on the qualitative findings. In the structural analysis phase, a four-point scale (0–3) was used, and in the scenario-building phase, a –3 to +3 scoring scale was applied. Scenario development followed Schwartz’s eight-step scenario planning model. To ensure validity and reliability, trustworthiness strategies such as audit trail, member checking, peer debriefing, and reflexivity, based on the criteria of Jones, Brown, and Holloway (2013), were employed. Data analysis utilized Fuzzy Delphi, , and the MICMAC (version 1/2/6) and Scenario Wizard (version 4/31) software packages were used for data processing. Findings revealed that among the 22 identified factors, the five key drivers—healthy lifestyle, access to managerial positions, media roles, gender justice, and investment in women’s sports—shape the alternative futures. Two scenarios were produced: “Organizational Flourishing” and “The Glass Ceiling Effect.” The scenario consistency analysis indicated that the “Maximum Participation” scenario (Scenario 1) is the most plausible and likely future for the position of women in sports organizations in Iran.
Keywords